时代周刊：全世界都在担心中国的真正原因

丑要丑得有型1

发表于：2013-05-03 10:04

　The world is worried about China, but not for the right reasons. Global financial markets were roiled after the world’s second largest economy notched only a 7.7% boost to GDP in the first quarter — a drool-worthy performance for most nations, but a disappointment for a country that routinely jumped 10% or more over the past three decades. Economists are busily debating the usual: Will China have a hard or soft landing? Will the government step in and stimulate growth? Those questions miss the bigger picture. The reality is that China is unlikely to witness those astronomical growth rates, at least for some time. We may never see them again.

　　全世界都在担心中国，但都没有找到真正的原因。因为全球第二大经济体的中国在的第一季度的增长率停在了7.7%而导致了国际金融市场动荡不已。7.7%的增长率足以让大部分国家流口水，但对于中国来说是失望的，中国在过去的30年里可是有年增率超过10%。经济学家都在讨论一个老话题：中国经济是会硬着落还是软着落？政府是否会介入刺激增长？这些问题都遗落一个重要事实。至少中国在一些时间里将不会在有这种高速增长，我们肯能永远也不会再见到这种高速增长。

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　　The recent slowdown is not a temporary cyclical blip or solely the knockoff effect of the tepid global recovery. China’s growth model is broken and can’t be so easily fixed. Since the start of capitalist reforms in the 1980s, China excelled by throwing tons of resources into a modernizing economy — mountains of cash to build factories, roads and apartment towers, and millions of poor people into making iPads, blue jeans and cars. Under China’s “state capitalism,” bureaucrats often directed the cash into massive infrastructure projects or favored industries. However, this growth engine can’t keep purring indefinitely. The pools of idle labor that filled Foxconn’s assembly lines are drying up — China’s one-child policy made sure of that, by aging the population more rapidly. The workforce has already started to shrink. Even more worrying, the state-led, investment-obsessed system spawns too much debt and too many factories, leading to wasted resources and a debased financial sector.

　　最近的经济减缓不是一个短暂的循环点，也不是全球缓慢复苏的影响。而是中国的增长模式被打断了，修复是很困难的。从1980的资本改革开始，中国的快速增长依赖投入巨量的资源进行经济现代化：大量的资金兴建工厂，道路和住宅，把数百万的穷人赶去生产ipad，牛仔裤和汽车。在中国的国家资本主义下，官僚经常把资金投入大量的基建和优先的工业。但是这种增长动力是无法永远维持的。空闲的劳动力在减少，因为中国的一子政策加速了人口的老化速度。劳动人口已经开始收缩。更需呀担心的是，由政府主导的投资被债务和过量投资所困，导致资源浪费和金融贬值。

　　That’s what is happening in China today. Everywhere you look, the signs of rot are apparent. In a mad-cap quest to dominate green energy, China’s banks pumped billions into solar-panel manufacturing, creating hundreds of factories and vaulting China into the world’s largest producer. Now the sector has become a victim of its own excess: companies are failing, symbolized by the recent bankruptcy of market leader Suntech Power. Steel companies continue to invest in new capacity even though debt is rising and losses mounting. Each mill is backed by local officials eager to create jobs but dismissive of the larger costs. The investments top up GDP, but not the health of the overall economy. Inefficient, subsidized state-owned enterprises gobble up credit while more nimble private firms starve. The froth on China’s booming property market defies government efforts to calm it down. Facing meager investment options in China’s controlled financial markets, couples are choosing divorce to sidestep restrictions and taxes on apartments deals. Most frightening, debt has risen precipitously. Rating agency Fitch says credit relative to GDP reached 198% at the end of 2012, a startling increase from 125% in 2008. Local government debt has escalated in recent years, to an estimated $2 trillion, or 25% of GDP. The risks have been heightened by the emergence of “shadow banking” — mysterious, unconventional sources of lending often kept off the banks’ balance sheets — which George Soros recently warned could be as risky as the toxic subprime-mortgage securities that tanked Wall Street.

　　这是正在发生在中国的。在目可所及的地方，腐朽是清晰可见。在轻率地尝试控制绿色能源的策略里，中国银行投入了数以百亿在太阳能板的生产，中国是最大的制造商。现在这个领域成了过量投资的受害者。行业老大SuntechPower的破产就是代表，还有不少公司会跟进。钢铁工业持续盲目扩张导致债台高筑和销售不良。每个公司都得到地方政府的支持只为了增加就业而忽略了高额的成本。投资提高了GDP但是对于整体经济无益。因为效率低下，得到资助的国营企业大量分割了贷款而灵活的私企则缺少资金。泡沫化的地产市场使得政府的调整计划落空。面对政府控制的金融市场，中国夫妻在购买房屋时选择离婚规避政策和税务。最可怕的是债务增加惊人。评级机构惠誉称中国的债务由2008年的相当于GDP的128%上升到2012年198%。最近几年中，地方政府的债务逐步增加到2万亿左右，占GDP的25%。暴露的地下银行问题加重了这个危机，令人难以理解的是这种非传统借贷是不会记录在银行的结存上的，乔治索罗斯已经指出这个问题就和华尔街的次贷危机一样有害。

　　Where is this all headed? “Panda huggers” (the optimists) believe that China’s leadership is tackling these problems and there is no threat to economic stability. “Dragon slayers” (the pessimists) warn that similar surges of debt have toppled other economies into financial crises. Everyone, however, agrees the current situation can’t last. The economy requires more and more debt to produce the same amount of output. In order for China to keep its current growth model running, therefore, debt levels must continue to rise — to ever more dangerous levels.

　　这一切将何去何从？“熊猫爱护者”乐观主义者认为中国领导人正在解决这个问题，经济会保持稳定。“屠龙勇士”悲观主义者警告相似的债务危机已经干掉了不少经济体。但是所有人都同意这种情形时不会长久的。经济需要越来越多的债务去生产同等的价值。如果中国保持现在的增长模式，债务会持续增加到一个更加危险的等级。

　　There is also consensus on the solution. Economists have been warning for years that China must decrease its dependence on investment for growth and “rebalance” to allow consumption to play a bigger role. Government officials point out signs of progress — first-quarter GDP was driven upward more by consumption than investment, for instance. But progress is, at best, at a crawl. Private consumption relative to GDP in China is still the lowest among major economies. The government has simply balked at the reforms necessary to change that. Feeble health care and pension systems force households to save; then controls on interest rates keep returns on bank deposits meager, punishing them for saving. If anything, much government policy has reinforced China’s old growth model — including the heralded state-heavy stimulus program launched after the 2008 financial crisis. Businessmen in China speak of a “lost decade” of stalled reform.

　　这有一个一致的解决方法。经济学家一直警告中国减少这种依靠投资的增长和重新调整以增加消费的比重。政府官员指出改变的迹象——比如在第一季的GDP增长中消费的比重超过了投资。但是这种改变是缓慢的。中国的私人消费在GDP的比重依然低于其他主要经济体。在这项改革上，它是畏首畏尾的。虚弱的医疗保健和退休金系统导致家庭储蓄，调整利率保证银行的存款要求和惩罚存款的人。总之，很多政府计划增强了中国的旧增长模式，包括了2008年金融危机后推出的刺激计划。在中国的商人指出由于改革停滞而失去了10年。

　　Even if China reforms more quickly, the economy is likely to slow as it transitions to more consumption-heavy growth. But if China drags its feet on reform, growth will likely be slower anyway, as its old model sputters and creaks. That means that under just about every scenario, the world can’t count on a supercharged China to hold up global growth while the U.S. and Europe remain mired in debt and joblessness. But a slower China may actually be a good thing. A reformed, rebalanced Chinese economy will be a less risky, more stable force in the global economy. The much bigger risk comes from a China that doesn’t discard its failing growth model. That could push China into a financial crisis. Now that’s really something to worry about.

　　即使中国加快改革，在过渡到消费为主拉动增长时，中国的经济可能任然会减速。但是中国如果拖延改革，在摇摇欲坠的旧模式中，经济增长会可能变得更慢。这意味着，在几乎所有情况下，在美欧陷入债务和失业泥潭时，世界不能指望增加中国的压力以支撑全球的增长。但是较慢增长的中国可能是好事。经过改革和重新调整的中国经济会是一个低风险，全球经济稳定的力量。不放弃其失败的增长模式的中国是一个更大的风险。失败的增长模式会吧中国推入金融危机才是需要担心的事。

　　评论翻译:

　　1）LewiHussey

　　Wow, a really well written article, I agree that pumping money into the economy surely won't help anybody in the long run.

　　好文。我同意长期向经济领域注入资金是没有帮助的。

　　2）Smiles909

　　A little is evolution, more has happened with human actions -- in China. In another part of the world -- human inaction, human destructive actions has led to under-development in even the basics -- a simple road...! So, the Chinese situation need not be a despair, there is yet an opportunity, to recover..! Let the Chinese move to the world -- to market services -- build roads, houses, lay sanitation, gas pipes. Even environmental parks, or mend the sea-shores...till food-kitchens and barber shops..!! Just extend this formula -- even Russians benefit or Zimbabwe..!!

　　一点是进化，在中国人为发生的更多。在世界的另一处，人们什么也不做，人类的破坏行为导致了发展，甚至一条简单的路。所以中国的情况不是绝望的，还有机会恢复的。让中国走向世界——市场服务——建造道路，房屋，打扫卫生，铺设煤气管。甚至环保公园，修补海岸线。。直到食品厨房和理发店。延长这一公式。。。俄国和津巴不韦也会得益。

　　3）MarkHolland

　　Globalism can't last. Not in its present slave-produced hyper-consumptive form. Growth can't last at the expense of a planet running out of clean water and other resources. The problem isn't China. It's all of us. The US above all. We are living beyond our means and on the broken lives of human beings in places like Bangladesh and China. We are living beyond our means on the broken dreams of our children and grandchildren. History will revile us and no amount of consumption or production will change the matter. Quite the contrary.

　　正相反。全球化是不可长久的。在目前的一方高消费，另一方被压榨的形式。长期增长也是不可行的，水和其他资源会被耗尽。问题不在中国。它是所有人的问题。尤其是美国。我们的生活方式破坏了其他人的生活，比如生活在孟加拉和中国。我们的生活方式破坏了后代的梦想。无法改变的历史会痛斥我们，

　　4）BrightNote

　　The two comments before me are posted by Chinese-government paid "50 Cent Party" commentators, whose goal is to turn anything negative about China into an attack on America. Read about their list of objectives on the Internet.

　　前面的两个评论都是“五毛”。他们的目的是用中国的负面新闻攻击美国。可以看到他们的网上清单。

　　5）duduong

　　@BrightNote

　　There is nothing that provides a better contrast with the substantial discussion I make than a thoughtless ad hominem attack. Keep up the good work.

　　无脑的广告人身攻击与我的实质讨论形成鲜明的对比。干得好，继续。

　　6）SardonicVertitas

　　You forget your meds son? I am a born and bred American who pay his taxes and goes to church, and you should watch what you say before you spout a bunch of sh. Everything i have is invested in America and I am not afraid to call it the way I see it.

　　50 cent party, really? That sounds like a rap song, lol. Are you American?

　　孩子你忘了吃药了吗？我是一地地道道的美国人，我交税和上教堂，你应该注意你说的话在你喷粪之前。我的所有都在美国但是我不怕说出真相。

　　五毛党？听起来像RAP,大笑。你是美国人吗？

　　7）duduong

　　Mr. Schuman is trained in American-style economics and thinks just like any other American economists, the same group whose advice of unchecked financial deregulation led to the latest worldwide economic crisis, destroying trillions of dollars/euros worth of wealth in the process.

　　舒曼先生学的是美式经济，想法也和其他美国经济学家一样，同一伙人建议无需监管的反常的金融规定，导致了全球经济危机，它摧毁了以兆计算的美元和欧元财富。

　　China does not need more consumption for consumption's sake. Such a shift is a one-time boost to economy at the cost of economic resilience by loading consumers with debts.

　　中国不需要更多的消费理念。这种改变只有提升经济的一次机会，结果会使消费者背一身的债和经济失去弹性。

　　Whether or not a country is over-investing in a particular year should be judged by the comparison to its cumulative infrastructure instead of the GDP. The ratio of investment to GDP may be high in China, but given how underdeveloped most of the country remains, much of the new investment is still well spent and will generate reasonable returns down the road. Using the lessons from Japan over the past two decades is simply comparing apples to oranges.

　　一个国家是否过量投资在一个特别年份应该根据投资与累积基础设施的对比来判断而不是GDP。中国的GDP的投资比重可能高，但如果在全国范围来看，许多地区还处于发展，多数的新投资还是好的，还会产生合适的回报。用日本过去20年的经验来看中国就像用苹果和橘子对比。

　　The Chinese solar manufacturers that just went bankrupt are nothing more than routine happening in a free economy. There is no domino effect, no systemic risk. The Chinese economy is not measurably worse off for it, because this was no asset bubble. In fact, the Chinese government is intentionally keeping the growth rate at significantly under 10% exactly to eliminate any risk of such a bubble. And the reason why the Chinese were able to avoid bubbles for 30 years at growth rates averaging close to 10%? Simply because they ignore advice from American economists like Mr. Schuman.

　　中国刚破产的太阳能厂只是自由经济的一个正常现象。没有骨牌效应，没系统性危险。中国的经济并没有可视性的恶化，因为没有资产泡沫。事实上中国政府有意保持低于10%的增长率，有利于去除类似于泡沫的危险。为什么在过去的30年里中国可以保持高增长接近10%的同时避免了泡沫化？很简单，因为他们不理睬类似于美国经济学家舒曼先生的建议。

　　8）SardonicVertitas

　　Frankly, I am more worried about us.

　　坦率的说，我更担心我们自己