美刊：美军方“震惊”解放军同行变热情
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/12/the_love_fest_china_us_military
核心提示： 2012年10月以来，解放军官员用相对热情坦率的态度对待美国同行，有美军官员把这种情况称为“情人节”。
参考消息网4月15日报道 美国《外交政策》杂志网站4月12日发表题为《情人节》的文章称，本月晚些时候，中美两国最重要的军队将领将会晤，看看他们能否让全球最危险的军事关系重返安全轨道。他们的任务是降低风险，防止中国周边的触发点升级成中美战争。
文章称，美军参谋长联席会议主席马丁·登普西是一位和蔼可亲、直言不讳的军人。中国人民解放军将领房峰辉亦如此。
一位最近在北京见过房峰辉将军的来宾说：“房非常聪明，给人留下深刻印象。他很有主见，希望打造一支更专业化的部队。”
文章指出，解放军领导人一直认为，减少与外界的接触，不透露解放军的作战能力、战略意图和指挥体系最符合他们的利益。但有迹象表明，随着中国军力变得越来越强大，保持军队神秘性这种想法正在发生改变。
直到最近，解放军一直恪守已故共产党领导人邓小平的名言“韬光养晦”，在不引发周边军备竞赛的情况下悄悄发展军力。他们的战略意图含糊不清，因而没有招致强国的警惕。与此同时，解放军的作战能力也没有强大到促使其他国家作出防御姿态的地步。
但最近20年来中国的军费一直呈两位数增长。经过20年的发展，解放军可以不再隐瞒自己的能力。它试飞了隐形战斗机、部署全球首枚反舰弹道导弹作为“杀手锏”，还启用中国的第一艘航母“辽宁舰”。前美国核不扩散问题特别代表克里斯托弗·福特说：“强国没必要示弱。”
文章称，在这些军事硬件的支持下，解放军似乎不再有“韬光养晦”的耐心。海军正在向有争议海域推进，促使该地区的几乎每个濒海国家增加军事支出，相互建立新安全联盟，并使美国加速把战略重心“转向”中国。
福特在2012年年底向解放军将领们表示，军队保持一定的神秘性有时候能产生威慑作用，但极度缺乏了解会导致对方作出最坏的设想。这正是中国现在面临的情况。
福特在北京香山举行的一次军队会议上就中美缺乏信任的问题发表讲话。他说：“北京出于战略考虑一贯保持军队的神秘性，这更容易使美国人和中国的周边国家对解放军的战略规划和意图作出最坏的设想。”
当然，这是在中国军事侵略的潜力被过分夸大乃至超越现实的情况下。福特表示：“如果解放军的目的不是通过强制手段建立以中国为中心的地区或全球‘和 谐’，北京的目标确实如中国领导人所说的那样无害，那么增加军队的透明度是至关重要的一点。到目前为止，解放军拒绝在这方面提供必要的透明度，我认为这种 情况很难维持下去，而且会起到相反的效果。”
文章称，解放军仍然把美国定义为中国的主要对手。但随着习近平等政府新领导班子的上任，保持军队神秘性的战略思维或许在改变。
自2012年10月以来，解放军官员一直用相对热情和坦率的态度对待美国同行，一位对此感到震惊的五角大楼官员甚至在私下把这种情况描述为“情人 节”。与中国有更多公开合作渠道的澳大利亚则提议三国举行联合军演与交流。据一位知情人士透露，中方原则上给出“积极的”答复。澳大利亚总理朱莉娅·吉拉 德近日访华时公开表示有可能和中美举行三国联合军演。
据报道，上个月房峰辉将军接通搁置已久的热线，告诉登普西将军中国“愿与美方共同努力，加强沟通，增进互信，妥处分歧，深化合作”。这则报道得到了美方的证实。
文章指出，中美陷入了一场可能持续数十年的危险竞争。但至少两国的军队将领们正在会谈，寻找防止危机进一步恶化直至失控的办法。
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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/12/the_love_fest_china_us_military
And with all the shiny hardware, it seems the PLA no longer has the patience to bide its time. The PLA Navy is pushing harder into disputed territories and causing almost every maritime nation in the region to increase military spending, form new security linkages with each other, and encourage the United States to accelerate its "pivot" toward China.
In December, Ford, who was then at the Hudson Institute in Washington, explained the diminishing returns of secrecy. He told PLA colonels and generals that an element of uncertainty can sometimes aid deterrence, particularly around the question of what provocation might trigger nuclear attack, but a profound lack of clarity will lead the other party to assume the worst. And this is what's happening with China.
"Beijing's strategic secretiveness has contributed to making it increasingly easy for Americans, and China's own neighbors, to assume the worst about the PRC's strategic planning and the intentions such planning supports," said Ford, in his paper on Sino-American distrust, delivered at a PLA conference on the topic in Beijing's Fragrant Hills.
That, of course, assumes that American and regional assumptions about China's potential for military aggression are inflated beyond reality. "If engineering a coercively Sinocentric regional or global ‘harmony' is not in fact the PRC's ambition, and Beijing's objectives are indeed as benign as its leaders claim, then it is vital to bring about vastly greater transparency," Ford said. "So far, the PRC has refused to provide meaningful transparency, but I would argue that this is becoming untenable and counterproductive."
The PLA still defines the United States as its enemy-in-chief, as Gen. Fang's deputy, Qi Jianguo, made clear in an essay in Study Times earlier this year. But the strategic calculus of secrecy may be changing with President Xi Jinping's new leadership team.
Since October, PLA officials have been treating their U.S. counterparts with relative warmth and openness, to the point that one shocked Pentagon official privately described it as a "love fest." Australia -- which has more open channels of cooperation with China than the United States or any other U.S. ally -- has proposed an ambitious program of joint exercises and exchanges. Behind closed doors, it has received a "positive" in-principle reply, according to officials familiar with the talks. Prime Minister Julia Gillard publicly broached the possibility of trilateral exercises with China and the United States while touring China this week.
Last month General Fang picked up the dusty hotline and told General Dempsey that China was "willing to strengthen its communications with the U.S. military to enhance mutual trust, handle differences properly, and deepen co-operation," according to a Xinhua report confirmed by Dempsey's public affairs officer, Col. Dave Lapan.
The United States and China are locked in a dangerous rivalry that may go on for decades. But at least the generals are talking and searching for ways to prevent accidents spiraling out of control.
