如果中越在南海发生战争

分类：巴基斯坦 标签: 中国, 战争, 越南 

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翻译：无铭十哲 转载请注明出处

（译注：这个帖子刷了18页，这里只翻译前两页，有兴趣的同学请移步原地址观看）

1 dunhill（越南 越南）（译注：前者国家，后者所在地）
Which part China Navy's willstarted in SCS with Viet Nam?How Viet namgoing to re-act? Can anyone gives some opinion?

中国海军的哪个部分会与越南再南海开启战端？越南要如何回应？有人能说说么？

（译注：不知道是我英语不行，还是这位仁兄英语不行，后面他的话有很多错误，我试着理解吧）

2 xyxmt （巴基斯坦 加拿大）
you gotta be kidding

你在开玩笑吧


3 dunhill（越南 越南）
No, I better think that a YESthan NO and I don't have that luxury to pretending that wills never happens.

回复#2：不是，我最好认为这会发生，而不是不会，我不能奢侈的假装那种事情永远不会发生。



4 Pakistanisage（巴基斯坦 美国）
In my humble opinion if thereis a Naval Battle between Vietnamese Navy and Chinese Navy, Vietnamese Navy istoast.

回复#3：以我个人浅见，如果越南海军和中国海军发生海战的话，越南海军就是片儿面包。



5 Battle of Bach Dang River（越南 越南）
Vietnam Navy is clearly weaker,but VN has the advantage of distance. If the Chinese invade Vietnam'sislands, they are able to keep them?
Moreover, Vietnam will only fight to protectour EEZ. So is it not too far from the coast of Vietnam.

越南海军确实更弱，但是越南有距离优势。如果中国入侵越南岛屿，他们有能力守住吗？
而且，越南越南只会选择战斗来保护我们的专属经济区。它离越南的海岸线也不是很远。



6 Chinese-Dragon（中国 中国）
If you are serious, then justadd up all the hardware and compare the PLAN to the Vietnamese navy.
Naval battles are usually much more straightforward than land-based battles.

如果你是认真的话，那么就把所有的硬件都算上，然后对比一下解放军海军和越南海军。海战通常比陆战更直截了当。




7 dunhill（越南 越南）
Comparison China Navy's andViet Nam Navy's, that huge big difference and nobody could deny it.Nonetheless, China can notusing 100% of its Navy's to confront with Viet Nam. Right? So, which part China willsstart? islands like 1988 or Navy's head-to-head?

回复#4：中国海军与越南海军之间比较，有巨大的不同，没人可以否认。尽管如此，中国不会使用100%的海军力量对付越南。不对吗？中国会从哪一部分开始呢？像1988年的岛屿争夺战还是海军白刃战？

That's what I thought.
So, Viet Nam at that time standing asdefender, so it's will have air support for its weak Navy's. What China use toprotecting it's Navy's besides sea-to-air missiles?

回复#6：我就是那么想的。
所以，越南那时会处于防御一方，所以它会给弱小的海军以空中支持。中国除了海对空导弹之外，还有什么可以用来保护自己的海军？




8 ephone（中国 美国）
You think PLAN has no airsupport???
Of course, our missiles could have destroyed allof your airports, letting your planes have no runway to get up and down.

回复#7：你认为解放军海军没有空中支持？？？
当然，我们的导弹可以摧毁你们的所有机场，让你们的飞机没有跑道可以起降。




9 KirovAirship（澳门 澳门）
In my opinions all Vietnam has todo is to get more allies stand by your side.

在我看来，越南必须要做的只是去争取更多的盟友站在你们那边。




10 Yogi（印度 印度）
actually it'll be quite difficultsituation considering the land proximity of mainland china
China actually don't need any AC to send itsplanes to Viets coastlineborder=0 title=Undecided class=inlineimg v:shapes="_x0000_i1025">
Unless there is some foreign intervention Vietswill have a tough time defending there borders considering the fact that u alsoshare land border with China...
But i personally don't think China is going foran all out war against the Viets but ya there might be some minor drifts whichofcourse Viets can handle to a greater extent

实际上，考虑到地理上毗邻中国大陆，情况会很艰难。
中国实际上都不需要航母来把飞机派往越南海岸线。

除非有外国的介入，否则越南人会有一段艰苦的日子来防御边境，考虑到你们也和中国有路上边界的事实。
但是我个人认为，中国不会与越南爆发全面战争，但是或许会有一些小动作，当然，越南人可以操作一下扩大范围。




11 dunhill（越南 越南）
I don't think PLAN has no airsupport, but how its will deploy when the distance from Hainan to SCS Islands?It's easy to get Viet Nam Jet Interceptors from the ways its going back to Hainan, nor Air Refuelers will being shots by air-to-airmissiles.
If Chinause missiles to destroy Viet Nam air base, then that will consideringdeclare full scale of war. Viet Nam has no choice to deploy ground force todefense its Air bases.

回复#8：我并没有认为解放军海军没有空中支持，但是考虑到海南到南海岛屿的距离它会如何部署呢？它回海南的路上很容易遭到越南截击机的阻拦，空中加油机也会被空空导弹击中。

What if there is no allies dueto the economic crisis all over the World. Viet Nam can not lean forsomething, someone for its independence, and for the freedom of Vietnamesepeople.
Viet Nam will not that type of luxury thinking.

回复#9：如果由于全世界的经济危机没有盟友怎么办？越南为了自己的独立，为了越南人民的自由，不会为了某些东西或者人屈身。越南不会有那种奢侈的想法。




12 Chinese-Dragon（中国 中国）
We don't have a land-borderdispute with Vietnam(we only have 1 active land border dispute).
The dispute is a sea-based one, like most of ourother territorial disputes.
Which naturally means that any conflict will bemostly limited to a Naval battle/skirmish.

我们和越南没有陆地边界线纠纷（我们只剩一个陆地边界纠纷）
这个争议是海上的，就像我们大部分领土纠纷一样
这实际上意味着战争基本限定于海战/小规模冲突。




13 dunhill（越南 越南）
I agreed. If there is aescalated and can not be deals through diplomatic channel, Naval skirmish thatthe only chances to make. Chinamight quick takes the islands, but for the long run China could not be able to keep it.
Nevertheless, the Free Navigation Route has been provokes, the World has steps in thenhow China going to deals and protect the islands it just took from Viet Nam foreveryday "hit and run" by small groups of forces?

回复#12：
我同意。如果有升级的事端，不能用外交途径解决的话，海上冲突有发生的可能。中国可能快速的夺取岛屿，但是长期来看，中国并不能守住。
然而，自由航路已经被炒热起来了，世界已经介入，中国如何应对、保护从越南拿走的岛屿，在每天都有小股武装力量“打了就跑”的情况下？




14 KirovAirship（澳门 澳门）
Well, you people have kickedFrench back to Europe, beat the USand defeated the CCP, so if you are really isolated this time, the result willbe fine as well I think.

回复#11：嗯，你们的人民把法国踢回了欧洲，打败了美国，战胜了TG，所以你们现在真的是孤立了，但我想结果也会不错的。




15 sukhoi_30MKI（印度 印度）
Chinese cannot occupy vietnam's landas history proves that Viet conga are masters of guerilla warfare. If China does go to war with Vietnam it willbe the start of Econimic down turn. The might US with 16 Trillion economy andspecialized in war cannot control less than 10000 Taliban fighters and fightinga defensive war in Afganistan.
I magine Chinawith half the US economyfighting Vietcong's with the backing of US,India,Japan and Russia.
May be they can occupy some Islandsbut that will destroy the Chinese good will and will affect Diplomatic front.

中国人不能占据越南人的土地，因为历史证明越南人精通游击战。如果中国与越南发生战争，那就会是她经济下滑的开始。16万亿经济体量，专门研究战争的美国控制不了不超过10000的塔利班武装分子，在阿富汗打了一场自卫战争。

我想象一下，经济体量是美国一半的中国与越南人作战，越南背后还有美国，印度，日本和俄罗斯的支持。
或许他们能占领一些岛屿，但是那会破坏中国人信誉，影响外交位面。



16 dunhill（越南 越南）
Forget all about that, and italso in the past but future war is coming. Chinaseems is not backing off from its claims, and Viet Nam will not giving up due tothe security of this nation. SCS also a sea ways for commercial ships,fishermen so and so, no one will accepting that allow for someone to blockingit drive ways, door ways.

回复#14：忘记那些吧，已经是过去的事了，但是未来的的战争正在临近。中国看起来不会撤回主张，越南也会为了国家安全不会让步。南海也是商船，渔民等等的海上通道，没人会同意有人挡住车道，门路。




17 KirovAirship（澳门 澳门）

Then you should help eachothers to fix the economy and establish a stable union as soon as possible, thelonger you stick into the trouble, the harder the PRC is pushing.

回复#16：那么你们应该彼此互相帮助发展经济，尽快建立稳固的联盟，你陷入麻烦越久，中华人民共和国就会逼的越紧。




18 dunhill（越南 越南）
Let's say China success to makequick takes islands that been held of by Viet Nam, Viet Nam will using smallgroups of force, which is the modern radar could not detect and it's tacticsjust "hits and runs".
That time, Free Navigation Route has been deployinga lot Nations Navy to protecting its commercials ships pass by. That's alsomeans, China Navy's can't do anything better than using same tactics "hitsand runs".
Viet Nam has longest shores and any "small groupsforces" will reaching SCS islands easily, and also could blocking China small group forces came from Hainan due to the distance.
This time, CMS can not easily and freelyapproach to protecting its "small group forces", Viet Nam could take down tanker-ships from China from anypoints of its land.

回复#15：让我们说说中国成功快速攻下越南控制的岛屿吧，越南会用小股的武装，现代化的雷达也无法侦察，策略是“打完就跑”。

那个时候，自由航线上部署了很多国家的海军来保护商船通过。那也意味着中国海军没有比用“打了就跑”的相同战略更好的方法。

越南有很长的海岸线，任何“小股武装”很容易的就能到达南海岛屿，也可以用距离阻挡中国从海南岛派出相同的部队。

这个时候，中国军舰就不能自由轻易地靠近来保护他们赶走“小股武装”了，越南可以干掉从中国的任何地方过来的油轮了。




19 Battle of Bach Dang River（越南 越南）
We will not let them invade anyisland anymore. Although they can capture the island, we will not let them siton the island, we will continuously attack to regain the island. The Islands isnot too far from coast of Vietnam,but quite far from China...

回复#15：我们不会让他们再侵占任何岛屿了。尽管他们能夺得岛屿，我们不会让他们在岛上站住脚的，我们会一直攻击来收回岛屿。诸岛离越南海岸不远，但是离中国相当远……




20 sukhoi_30MKI（印度 印度）
You are Very true, Viet congare capabale of that, But this time unlike Vietnam war with US, You can expectbacking from All the major powers including India.

回复#29：你说的很对，越共用能力做到那些。但是这回不像是与美国的越南战争。你可以对从包括印度在内的所有的主要力量那获得支持抱有期望。

Employing Hit and Runtactics,doing guerilla warfare and prolonging the conflict will be advantageousfor Vietnam.

回复#18：就用“打了就跑战术吧”，打游击战，拖延战争对越南有利。




21 Chinese-Dragon（中国 中国）
Good theory.
But if it works, why haven't you used it to takeback the Paracel Islands?
Paracel Islands - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

回复#18：好理论。但是如果这有效的话，为什么你们没有用这个方法那会西沙群岛？




22 USAHawk785（美国 美国）
I would like to interject thatthe United States puts a great emphasis in the importance of maintaining thefreedom of navigation in the waters of the south china sea (other wise known asthe east sea by the vietnamese or the west philippine sea by the philippines),it is integral to American national interest to prevent any despondentinhibition in the navigation of our maritime assets. Some $5 Trillion worth inAmerican trade traverses through the said area and falls within thejurisdiction and realm of control (ROC) by the United States Pacific Command. Iam confident that there will be no aggressiveness committed by the Chinese asto instigate an American response. I can guarantee you that when the 5th and 7thFleets are activated to respond to any potential threats to American interestsin the region, the quarrels will be mitigated with shear immediacy.
In regards to Vietnamese defense, just recentlythe US Navy held joint naval exercises with some minor counterparts in theVietnamese Navy, which correlates with American military / naval joint drillswith the Philippines.
It is in the American calculus to respond toimmediate threats to our strategic interests in the region. Rest assured theChinese , will not risk our intervention. Else their entire navy will be sentto the bottom of the pacific ocean.

回复#18：我想插一句，美国对保障南海（然而被越南人称为东海，或者菲律宾人称的西海）水域的自由航行的重要性很重视，阻止任何对我们海事航行的令人失望的阻挠发生是美国国家利益的一部分。穿过上述地区的美国贸易额有5万亿美元，属于美国太平洋司令部的管辖范围（中华民国）。我很有信心中国人不会有攻击性的行为以至于逼迫美国作出回应。我可以向你保证，第五和第七舰队随时准备回应在该地区危害美国利益的潜在威胁，争吵会立即缓和的。

关于越南的防卫力量，就在最近美国海军与一些越南海军的人一对一进行联合海军训练，就像美国军队/海军与菲律宾人的关系一样。

美国会快速对这个区域对我们战略利益造成现时威胁的行为做出反应。对中国人放心吧，他们不会冒着我们介入的风险。否则他们的整个海军会被揍到太平洋底的。

It would be wise for Vietnam toexpand its OVCs and increasing its naval assets in order to give precedence toits claim. Vietnam'sgovernment received the mandate to rule over the people in your country, it isa national prerogative for your government to increase your nation's navalstrength.
I cannot lie that it pleases me, as I am sure itpleases most American strategists, to see certain countries in Asia-Pacificcourting American favor in response to a certain antagonist state in East Asia.

回复#19：越南人扩张它的OVC，增加海军资产优先考虑它的要求是明智的。越南政府得到授权来管理你们国家的人民，增强你们国家的的海军力量是你们政府的国家特权。
我不想说谎，这让我高兴，我也确定这让大多数的美国战略家高兴，看到太平洋的某些国家讨美国的欢心来回应东亚的某个敌国。






23 dunhill（越南 越南）
First:Viet Nam has been so longfor war, and during that time (1974) Viet Namgov still believing that "friendship" from China-VietNam, and China willreturns it back. Nonetheless, Viet Nam just build for itself a very "highhopes"
Second: Even now, after 1979, 1988 VietNam still hoping that once day China will thinking back. Unfortunately, eversince China economics grows like grass, its also modernized Navy's and actingaggressiveness to Vietnamese people (Fishermen)
Third: Viet Nam still trying to avoid awar or any war to any country, but if the tried is not works then Viet Nam hasno other choice other than defense/fights.
Fourth: in case war happens, Viet Nam cannot head-to-head with China Navy's if the outcome numbers, then its willchanges tiki-taka, hit and runs to block China supplies and retake the islands.(Even thought will takes years to gain them back)
Fifth: With Naval experience, Viet Nam and China never has any experience tofight over the sea, if that so is only depends on the tactics for using.

回复#21：

第一：越南经历了如此长的战争，在那段时间（1974），越南政府仍然相信中越之间的“友谊”，中国会归还它。但是，越南只是给自己堆砌“美好的希望”。

第二：即使是现在，1979,1988之后，越南仍然希望中国某天会回心转意。不幸的是，自从中国经济快速增长之后，它也现代化其海军，对越南人民（渔民）表现出攻击性。

第三：越南仍然试图避免与任何国家的任何战争，但是如果努力没有效果，那么越南除了战斗别无选择。

第四：万一战争发生，越南不能与中国海军硬碰硬，它会改变策略，游击以截断中国的补给，重新夺回岛屿（尽管可能要花费数年才能拿回来）

第五：海战经验，越南和中国从没有在海上作战的经验，如果是那样的话，依靠的是运用的策略。






24 Chinese-Dragon（中国 中国）
Just avoid a war in the firstplace and no one will have to worry about the details.

回复#23：最开始就躲避战争，没人要必须关心其细节。






25 USAHawk785（美国 美国）
1. What makes you think theChinese would want to instigate a war with Vietnam?
They are, after-all, not that stupid toinstigate a global crisis, and risk American intervention. Who in the rightmind would invite the response of 6 Carrier Battle Groups ?
2. It would be the antithesis for Vietnamesesecurity to engage in a war with China at this time.

回复#23：

1.是什么让你认为中国人想要煽动与越南的战争？

他们，毕竟，没那么蠢煽动一场全球危机，冒着美国介入的风险。脑筋正常的话谁会招来六个航母战斗群的回应？

2.此时与中国陷入战争会与越南人的安全相左。






26 Chinese-Dragon（中国 中国）
"USAHawk" (if you areactually an American, since your English writing skills suggest otherwise)...where was the US Navy when North Koreawas attacking your close ally South Korea in 2010?
North Korea sunk the Cheonan with 104 personnel on board, andthen they proceeded to blast South Korea with artillery shells, killing severalcivilians. As if that was not enough, they also developed nuclear weapons.
And where was the USAwhen their "friend" Georgia was invaded and occupied by Russia in 2008?
If you won't even stand up for your closestallies (South Korea), whatmakes anyone think Americawill do so for Vietnam,especially when you consider the history between the two countries?

"USAHawk"（如果你真是个美国人的话，你的英语写作特点看起来像其他的），当朝鲜2010年攻击你们亲密的盟国南朝鲜的时候，美国海军在哪呢？

北朝鲜击沉了天安号，上面有104名船员，然后他们继续炮击南朝鲜，杀了几个平民。好像那还不够，他们还要研制核武器。

当俄罗斯2008年入侵占领了你们的“朋友”格鲁吉亚的时候，美国在哪？

如果你甚至不能为自己最亲密的盟国（南朝鲜）出头，怎么让别人认为美国会为了越南，特别考虑到你们两国的历史？

“I can guarantee you thatwhen the 5th and 7th Fleets are activated to respond to any potential threatsto American interests in the region, the quarrels will be mitigated with shearimmediacy. ”
LOL, do you think that is whatan American accent sounds like?

LOL，你认为那句是美国口音吗？






27 jackhammer2（印度 印度）
Sir, if such skirmish reallyhappens we all know who might win hence Viets will definitely going to usetheir air assets to help their navy to get some advantage then such a skirmishwill turn out into a complete war which might invites other interested partiesinto this standoff .....BTW when will be your AC is going to be operational??

回复#12：先生，如果这样的小规模冲突真的发生的话，我们都知道谁可能会赢，因此越南一定会用它的空军帮助海军获得一些优势，然后这样的小冲突会转变成全面战争，可能会招致其他利益有关方卷入僵局。。。另外，你们的航母何时能够使用呢？？






28 USAHawk785（美国 美国）
1. To understand the knowledgeof world order, one must understand how the system works. Do you think that theUnited Stateswould risk further complicating the security of the Korean peninsula over 1hostile action by the DPRK? The sinking of that one ship fuels the anger of theSouth Koreans, strengthens the alliance between Seouland Washington.The trait of a super power , is the ability to contain sentiments and to aim tomaintain the strategic upper-hand. One must wait for the best moment to strike,in the end game, not at petty movements of a pawn.

1.了解世界的规则，一个人必须明白体系是如何运转的。你们认为美国会因为朝鲜民主主义人民共和国的敌对举动而冒让朝鲜半岛安全局势恶化的风险么？那艘船的沉没给南朝鲜人的愤怒火上浇油，巩固了首尔和华盛顿的联盟关系。超级大国的特性是控制情绪的能力，目的是保住战略上的先手。等到最佳时机出击，在最后的游戏里，而不是小气的使用棋子。






29 Chinese-Dragon（中国 中国）
Who has a mutual defence pactwith Vietnam?Nobody.
I would be interested to see which country iswilling to sacrifice their economic relationship with China on behalf of Vietnam.

回复#27;

谁和越南有共同防御关系？没有
我会饶有兴趣的看看，哪个国家会为了越南甘愿牺牲与中国的经济关系。






30 USAHawk785（美国 美国）
PS. I have what you would calla "Chicagoan" accent.

回复#26：我有你们称之为“芝加哥”的口音。

I don't think the Chinese arethat stupid to initiate a war with the Vietnamese in the first place. It wouldbe diplomatic suicide on Beijing'spart.

回复#30：我不认为中国那么蠢首先与越南人开战。这会是北京的外交自杀行为