最近油价大跌，原因主要4条：1.利比亚因打仗被摧毁的产能几乎完全恢复，战前利比亚日产石油160万桶，现在几乎回到这个值，于是金融投机囤的油过剩了。2.伊拉克的产能也恢复到了战前。3.欧洲和中国经济问题。4.美国政府下选举前打压油价。

页岩油是个话题，但其实页岩油的产量相对传统石油小很多，美国页岩油产量据说到2035年会比2011年翻一倍，但翻一倍后也就123万桶，今年页岩油产量比去年多了也就10万桶，不到利比亚产能增加的16分之一，影响实际上不大。页岩油生产的成本也在上升，现在从Bakken搞一口井的价格，已经从2010年的650万，涨到今天的850万，估计现在页岩油生产收支平衡的价格在$68/b左右。

EIA今天警告，世界石油的剩余产能只剩下不到3%.所以一有什么事，油价就会飞涨，炒油的如果没买到要倒闭的公司，不必担心会被套牢。

ZT:World oil inventories have risen over the past two months, aided by increased output from Iraq and Libya, but spare production capacity remains tight, the U.S. government said on Tuesday.

Global fuels output exceeded consumption by an average of 1 million barrels per day in May and June, helping to push oil inventories higher and prices lower, the Energy Information Administration said in a report, obtained by Reuters ahead of its publication.

The EIA report is required every 60 days under the Iran sanctions law signed by President Barack Obama late last year that called for restricting Iran's ability to sell its crude oil on world markets.

The EIA estimated that world spare production capacity grew in the last two months to 2.4 million bpd, up from 2.1 million bpd in the previous two months.

The EIA warned, however, that spare world oil capacity was less than 3 percent of total world consumption, making it a factor as U.S. imposes sanctions and the European Union embargoes Iranian oil shipments from July 1.

"Spare capacity in May and June is still quite modest by historical standards, especially when measured as a percentage of global oil production and consumption," the EIA said.

With only a thin spare oil supply cushion, unforeseen oil production outages, such as major damage to oil platforms from hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or an upsurge of violence in producers such as Nigeria can quickly boost oil prices.

Global liquid fuel output in May and June hit 88.9 million bpd, up about 2.9 million bpd from the same period last year, the EIA said. Most of the gain came from increased output from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members Iraq and Libya. Output has also grown from Saudi Arabia.

The figures showing better supplies and falling oil prices cheered supporters of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil transactions that get underway on June 28.

"This is great news for sanctions supporters and very bad news for the Iranian economy," said a Senate Republican aide.

"With oil prices down and markets getting looser, the President and Congress have maximum flexibility to push the envelop with regard to economic sanctions. It's only going to get worse for Tehran from here."

Output in Iraq hit 2.9 million bpd in May and June, the highest since 2000, as new infrastructure helped increase exports from its southern fields. Libya's production which had virtually ceased for much of last year, has been restored to between 80 and 90 percent of the level it was before the civil war.

World fuel consumption averaged 87.9 million bpd over the last two months, up 600,000 bpd from the same period last year, the report said. (Reporting by Timothy Gardner and Roberta Rampton; Editing by Marguerita Choy)