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9月零售销售优于预期 vs 消费者信心下滑至30年来最低 | |
送交者: 道友 2011-10-14 17:25:38 于 [世界股票论坛] | |
今天的两个经济数据矛盾,结果市场现在只看好的不看坏的。消费者信心意外下滑至30年多来最低当然是坏消息。9月零售销售优于预期是好消息么?老道觉得未必,仔细看一下9月零售的详细项目就知道,其中汽车销量大涨大概是因为前半年日本地震导致销量下滑的反弹,这当然不坏,不过部分9月消费上涨的原因是8月飓风把美国东部搞得没人上街买东西,9月份学生回校不得不买的结果。最坏的上涨莫过于衣服销量大涨1.3%.这个TNND反映的是人民币升值,中国 来的衣物价格涨了,这个也成了他娘的好消息?下月的感恩节销售后,我们就可以知道消费者信心下滑至30年来最低所带来的真实结果! 各位熊兄熊弟们,美味就在前面,让我们把熊掌举高点,步子放长点。 ZT: 美国9月零售销售优于预期,但消费者信心意外下滑至30年多来最低,反映民众对景气的忧心。欧元区9月通膨持续加速,不过8月贸易逆差缩小。 美国商务部14日公布的数据显示,9月零售销售成长1.1%,增幅为2月来最大,远高于8月的0.3%和彭博访调经济学家预估的0.7%。
Janney Montgomery Scott首席固定收益策略师李巴斯说,这是很强劲的表现,显示零售商已准备好在年底假日购物潮大赚一笔。 然而美国10月汤森路透/密西根大学消费者信心指数意外下滑至57.5,低于9月的59.4,也不如彭博访调分析师预估的60.2。今年来该指数已跌落逾20点,消费者信心已恶化至1980年5月来最低水准。 失业率到9月止已连续三月维持在9.1%的高点,虽然梅西百货(Macy's)、柯尔百货(Kohl's)等零售商都打算在年底前增聘人手,但规模可能过小而无助于改善失业状况,消费者也对收入可能减少而忧心忡忡.consumers stepped up their spending on retail goods in September, a hopeful sign for the sluggish economy. They spent more on autos, clothing and furniture last month to boost retail sales 1.1 percent, the Commerce Department said today. It was the largest gain in seven months. Auto sales rose 3.6 percent to drive the overall increase. Still, excluding that category, sales gained a solid 0.6 percent. The government also revised the August figures to show a 0.3 percent increase, up from its initial report of no gain. Stocks rose after the release of the report, which is the government's first look at consumer spending each month. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 87 points in afternoon trading. Broader indexes also rose. A separate Commerce report showed that businesses added to their stockpiles for a 20th consecutive month in August while sales rose for a third straight month. The increase suggests businesses were confident enough in the economy to keep stocking their shelves. Stronger consumer spending could help tamp down concerns that the economy is at risk of a recession. Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for 70 percent of economic activity. The increase "shows that households are not completely down and out," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economists for Capital Economics. Dales said the data correspond with an annual growth rate of 2 percent for consumer spending growth in the July-September quarter. Dales cautioned that weak hiring will likely prevent consumers from spending at this rate on a month-to-month basis. "Sales growth is unlikely to remain this strong," he said. "So although a recession has become less likely, households still can't be relied on to drag the U.S. economy out of its continued malaise." The jump in retail sales prompted some economists to boost their growth forecast for the July-September quarter. Dean Maki at Barclays Capital Research said his group raised its forecast to 2.5 percent, up from 2 percent. Chris G. Christopher Jr., senior economist at IHS Global Insight, said the increase in spending was an improvement from the first half of the year. Still, he said overall growth was not enough to generate significant hiring gains. "Do not break out the champagne. Things seem better on the consumer and retail fronts, but consumers still have many problems," he said. The September gains were broad-based: >> Department stores sales increased 1.1 percent, a big turnaround from August when sales had fallen 0.5 percent. The drop was blamed in part on Hurricane Irene disrupting shopping along the East Coast. >> A larger category of general merchandise stores, which includes big-chain retailers including Wal-Mart and Target, showed a 0.7 percent rise last month after no gain in August. >> Specialty clothing stores sales rose 1.3 percent, after a 0.4 percent August drop. >> Sales were up 1.1 percent at furniture stores but edged down a slight 0.1 percent at hardware stores. That surprised economists, who expected more traffic from people seeking to repair damage from the hurricane. >> Gas station sales rose 1.2 percent. The overall economy grew at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the first six months of the year. That was the weakest growth since the recession ended in June 2009. High unemployment and steep gasoline prices forced many consumers to cut back on spending this spring. Without more jobs or higher pay increases, they are likely to keep spending cautiously. In September, the economy generated 103,000 net jobs. That's enough to calm recession fears, but it is far from what is needed to lower the unemployment rate, which stayed at 9.1 percent for the third straight month. Employers have added an average of only 72,000 jobs in the past five months. That's far below the 125,000 per month needed to keep up with population growth. And it's down from an average of 180,000 in the first four months of this year | |
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