美国知名历史学家艾伦·利希特曼（Allan Lichtman）教授，在过去40年10次总统大选中，曾九次正确预测总统胜选人，包括2016年川普胜选与2020年拜登胜选。https://blog.creaders.net/u/13701/202405/487834.html

每逢大选前两三个月，利教授便会根据他的13个准则【注】对大选赢家做出预测。8月下旬，利教授称，将在劳工节后宣布他的预测。

果不其然，今日利教授终于做出他的预测：在13个利氏判别准则中，8个对哈里斯有利，仅3个对川普有利。他的结论是，哈里斯将当选。

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/

根据利氏理论，哈里斯要在6个准则遭到翻盘才会败选。现在对川普有利的只有三个准则，还缺三个。

阿川和粉丝们，情况不大妙，要倍加努力哟。

利教授这次的预测对吗？两个月后便见分晓。

【注】利教授用13个准则预测两党总统候选人的胜败，而从不在乎所谓的民调。利氏13准则如下：

• The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections

• The sitting president is running for re-election

• The White House party is avoiding a primary contest

• There is a third-party challenger

• The short-term economy is strong

• The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms

• The White House party has made major changes to national policy

• There is sustained social unrest during the term

• The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic

• The challenger is uncharismatic

• The incumbent is charismatic

• The White House party has major failure in foreign policy

• The White House party has foreign policy success.