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时移世易，与2000年陈水扁当选总统、民进党赢得台湾政权不同，2016年的总统大选，则是建立在大陆已经成长世界经济巨人、大陆军事实力已经真正蠢蠢欲动的情势之下。台海两岸如果发生危机，则必将擦枪走火、引发战争。这不仅是当年中文互联网前辈如芦笛等人强烈反对的，更是全世界理性中国人所不愿看到。
与中国军改同步而来的，是中国国际空间的向外挣扎、以及美日同盟的拼命围堵，然而台海矛盾，绝对不能等同于钓鱼岛带来的东海危机、以及南沙群岛建岛造成的南中国海危机，中国官方以及中国民间，从来把台海关系视作内部事务、国家主权，中国军队“内战内行、外战外行”的八旗传统，以及“宁赠友邦、不予家奴”的国际关系原则，很可能效仿七十年前“解放战争”中国内战的残酷手段，玉石俱焚，打烂台湾。 中国大陆经十多年高速发展，经济跃入世界第二强国、军事实力增长为世界第三，然而政治文明和社会文明，不仅进步不大，而且有严重倒退的趋势。台海关系，不能冀望中国大陆流氓变绅士、立地成佛，必须依靠台湾政客和民众，摒弃擦边球思维和玩弄统独，以柔软对话方式应对两岸关系，造福台湾人民和大陆人民。这既是短期的应变之策，更是所有海外中国人所期待的。 |
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